11 U.S. industrials with robust demand and declining input prices

What are we looking for?

Industrial companies that successfully converted their adjusted net income growth into economic value added (EVA).

Last year, commodity prices reached their peak, resulting in year-over-year price declines for most of them. Concurrently, industrial company demand remains high this year owing to infrastructure boosts around the world. Lower input prices combined with healthy volume could provide a favourable environment to enhance profitability.

The screen (add the screener here)

We screened U.S. stocks in the industrial sector focusing on the following criteria:

  • market capitalization greater than US$5-billion;
  • positive three-month adjusted net income and EVA growth;
  • a StockPointer (SP) score greater than 60 – the score mainly considers risk-adjusted return on capital, earnings per share growth and free cash flow per share. The score varies between zero and 100. A score of 60 implies a better-than-average company;
  • an SP risk score lower than 30. The risk score is scaled from zero to 100, with 100 a high-risk company and 30 a low-risk one. The score takes into account many criteria; our software looks at leverage and stability of profitability and uses an automatically calculated discounted cash flow to evaluate the expensiveness of the company.

For informational purposes, we have also included quarterly earnings surprise, one-year price increase and dividend yield.

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What we found

U.S. industrials with strong demand and declining input prices

UAL-Q UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. 54.17 17767 51.2 62.3 61 27.0 24.8 47.4 N/A
AAL-Q AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. 16.79 10969 50.2 45.2 63 29.9 20.8 22.0 N/A
DAL-N DELTA AIR LINES, INC. 45.72 29417 23.1 39.3 60 24.2 11.7 44.2 0.9
PCAR-Q PACCAR INC 85.34 44616 113.3 15.9 74 27.3 6.9 40.7 1.3
AGCO-N AGCO CORPORATION 132.50 9924 164.4 14.8 78 23.5 15.0 28.4 0.9
CMI-N CUMMINS INC. 258.75 36639 34.6 13.6 77 24.0 N/A 20.2 2.6
CAT-N CATERPILLAR INC. 260.43 134361 52.8 10.8 73 28.8 N/A 38.6 2.0
EME-N EMCOR GROUP, INC. 211.82 9983 52.4 9.0 73 29.5 25.0 84.7 0.3
TKR-N TIMKEN COMPANY 91.62 6633 6.7 6.0 69 29.9 N/A 45.1 1.4
BLD-N TOPBUILD CORP. 274.28 8708 6.6 3.9 71 29.4 N/A 31.4 N/A
OTIS-N OTIS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION 90.05 37074 21.8 3.8 67 22.2 7.0 17.2 1.5


United Airlines Holdings Inc.  is a leading provider of civil aviation and cargo services. Recently, the company has demonstrated solid performance, achieving a three-month adjusted net income growth of 62.3 per cent and an EVA growth of 49.3 per cent. These figures surpass those of its competitors, American Airlines and Delta Air Lines. United Airlines also exceeded expectations by 24.8 per cent, outperforming the other listed airlines, at 20.8 per cent and 11.7 per cent, respectively.

PACCAR Inc. is a leading designer, manufacturer and supplier of light-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks, along with their corresponding parts. Over the past three months, PACCAR recorded remarkable EVA growth of 112.2 per cent, the second-highest on our list, compared with an adjusted net income growth of 15 per cent, demonstrating a rapidly evolving value-creation trajectory. The company surpassed earnings expectations by 6.9 per cent in the last quarter.

Cummins Inc. specializes in the design, manufacturing and distribution of powertrain and related components. Over the past three months, the company has displayed a positive trajectory of value creation, with its adjusted net income growing 13.6 per cent and economic value increasing by an impressive 34.7 per cent. Additionally, with a substantial SP score of 77 and SP risk score of 24, Cummins secures the second and third spots on our list for these respective metrics. The company has not reported earnings yet and will host an earnings call on Aug. 3.

Investors are advised to do further research before investing in any of the companies listed in the accompanying table.

Anthony Ménard, CFA, is vice-president of data management at Inovestor.