Anthony Menard

WHAT ARE WE LOOKING FOR?

Profitable companies that have a sensible price.

Return on capital and price-to-book tend to evolve in the same direction. As profitability rises, the price-to-book ratio is likely to increase to compensate for higher profitability. But what if we established lower and upper limits – such as a floor for profitability and a ceiling for valuation? Today, we’ll use such floor and ceiling limits to help us discover mispriced stocks.

THE SCREEN

We screened Canadian stocks focusing on the following criteria:

• Market capitalization higher than $2-billion;
• Return on capital higher than 10 per cent (we want a profitable company – this is our profitability floor);
• Price-to-book lower than 2.5 (we want a company with moderate valuation based on shareholder’s equity – this is our valuation ceiling);
• Positive three-month price growth (that is, a company with a positive trend in its share price);
• Positive two-year sales growth (we want a growing company);
• Positive one-year growth in current operating value (COV) – we want a company with improving fundamentals. We use discounted cash flow to derive the COV. The difference between the COV and a traditional DCF is that we assume the company will generate the same cash flow forever. In other words, we do not incorporate any growth component into the calculation. It is a way to evaluate the minimum value of a business; the parameters are determined automatically by our platform.

For informational purposes, we have also included price-to-earnings, three-year annualized growth in earnings per share, dividend yield and one-year price return. Please note that some ratios may be shown as of end of previous quarter.

MORE ABOUT INOVESTOR

Inovestor for Advisors is a fundamental-analysis research platform specializing in the economic value-added (EVA) approach. With Inovestor, advisers can quickly identify attractive investment opportunities, outsource their stock picking by using model portfolios, and easily communicate investment decisions with clients through client-friendly reports.

WHAT WE FOUND

Financial conglomerate Power Corp. of Canada has the highest three-year annual EPS growth on our list, at 22.4 per cent. (One of the public companies in which it owns a majority stake, Great-West Lifeco Inc., also made the screen). The jump of 31 per cent in Power Corp.’s current operation value is possibly related to the revised valuation of Wealthsimple Inc., one of its private investments, which surged from $1.4-billion to $5-billion between October, 2020, and May, 2021. Wealthsimple is well known for its robo-adviser and low-fee brokerage accounts.

Summit Industrial Income REIT has seen the largest three-month price increase (30 per cent) and three-year EPS growth (109.7 per cent) of our screen. Real estate investment trusts register fair value adjustments to reflect the increased value of their properties. For Summit, year to date, these adjustments already amounted to $693-million, which helps explain the jump in its unit price over the past three months. This year is exceptional, but Summit has shown constancy in reporting this kind of adjustment, with an average of $150-million a year in such adjustments in the past three fiscal years.

Natural gas producer Tourmaline Oil Corp. has achieved impressive two-year sales growth (83.8 per cent) and three-year annualized EPS growth (36.3 per cent) despite a challenging environment. Pension fund giant Caisse de dépôt et placement du Quebec said last week it will exit oil company investments next year, but will remain invested in companies involved in infrastructure such as pipelines and in natural gas activities. If oil becomes the next coal, so to speak, in the eyes of pension funds and other institutional investors, it could have an impact on oil producer share prices in the short-term. In this situation, natural gas companies could be an interesting alternative.

Although we did not filter stocks based on P/E and dividend yield, we note the median P/E of our list is 10.2, the median dividend yield is a respectable 2.7 per cent (not shown), and every stock pays a dividend.

Investors are advised to do further research before investing in any of the companies listed in the accompanying table.

Anthony Ménard, CFA, is vice-president of data management at Inovestor.

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WHAT ARE WE LOOKING FOR?

Dividend-paying U.S.-listed stocks with lower risk.

The S&P 500 is up 19.5 per cent over the past six months and its price-to-earnings ratio now stands at 35.4, higher than the 1999 dot-com peak of about 33. Given the current valuation, investors may prefer to reduce their exposure to the U.S. market and/or select stocks that are fundamentally supported by a dividend.

THE SCREEN (you can add it to your screener section here)

We screened U.S. stocks focusing on the following criteria:

• Market capitalization higher than US$2-billion;
• Beta of 0.8 or less. A beta lower than one implies that the stock price should increase less during rising markets and should decline less in a falling market;
• Three-year annual dividend growth higher than 5 per cent;
• Five-year annual earnings per share growth higher than 7 per cent – we want the dividend growth to be backed by earnings per share growth;
• Dividend yield higher than 2 per cent – we’re looking for companies with a larger yield than that of the S&P 500, which is currently 1.3 per cent;
• StockPointer (SP) Risk Score lower than 40 – The risk score is scaled from zero to 100 where 100 is a high-risk company. 40 is considered low-to-medium risk. The score uses many criteria such as valuation risk perceived by our software, leverage and stability of profitability.

For informational purposes, we have also included P/E, five-year annual return of capital, and one-year price return. Please note that some ratios may be shown as of end of previous quarter.

MORE ABOUT INOVESTOR

Inovestor for Advisors is a fundamental-analysis research platform specializing in the economic value-added (EVA) approach. With Inovestor, advisers can quickly identify attractive investment opportunities, outsource their stock picking by using model portfolios, and easily communicate investment decisions with clients through client-friendly reports. StockPointer is a decision-making tool covering Canadian and U.S. securities developed for retail investors and investment advisers. In addition, Inovestor allows users to create personalized filters, build custom portfolios and carry out in-depth analysis on more than 13,000 companies (Canadian and U.S. stocks and American depositary receipts).

WHAT WE FOUND

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. has the highest five-year EPS growth on the list at 15.2 per cent, and second-lowest risk score, at 22.8. Its COVID-19 vaccine revenues, which everyone had thought would be non-recurring, are increasingly likely to continue, at least in the medium term. A growing body of research is suggesting a third injection may give additional protection against the virus for certain vulnerable populations, such as those in long-term care.

Watsco Inc., which distributes heating, air conditioning and refrigeration equipment, has the second-highest earnings growth (13 per cent) and return on capital (15.9 per cent) on our list. As a distributor, the company needs relatively little capital to operate, leaving space to pay dividends. In the long term, the company could benefit from more recurrent extreme temperatures, such as we saw in Western Canada this summer.

Food and beverage company PepsiCo Inc. has a solid income stream from its various consumables such as Pepsi, Lay’s, Doritos, Quaker Oats, Aquafina and Gatorade, to name a few. PepsiCo has repetitive sales, reputable brands and respectable earnings and sales growth – key characteristics that we look for in a defensive company.

Investors are advised to do further research before investing in any of the companies listed in the accompanying table.

Anthony Ménard is an investment analyst at Inovestor Asset Management.

For more details about these stocks, subscribe to the Inovestor for Advisors platform for free: inovestor.com/en-CA/store/

Be smart with your money. Get the latest investing insights delivered right to your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor newsletter. Sign up today.

These nine Canadian stocks are poised to absorb excess consumer savings.

WHAT ARE WE LOOKING FOR?

Canadian equities that generate plenty of free cash flow.

Canadian consumers are now saving 13.1 per cent of their income, compared with a savings rate of 3.6 per cent at the beginning of 2020. After jumping early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the savings rate began to decline last year, but it is still significantly higher than before the outbreak. The consumer discretionary sector is well positioned to receive this spare cash.

THE SCREEN

We screened Canadian stocks in the sector focusing on the following criteria:

• Market capitalization greater than $500-million;
• Free-cash-flow-to-capital ratio higher than 10 per cent. We want a company that generates a large amount of free cash flow as a percentage of capital. A high ratio shows the company has plenty of cash to invest or distribute to shareholders;
• Economic performance index (EPI) change higher than 0.10. The EPI is the return on capital divided by the cost of capital. A positive change in this value shows an improvement in the company’s risk-return profile;
• A StockPointer (SP) risk score lower than 35. Developed by Inovestor, the SP risk score is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 is a high-risk company and 35 is considered low to medium risk. The score uses many criteria such as valuation risk perceived by our software, leverage and stability of company profits.

For informational purposes, we have also included the EPI, P/E ratio, price-to-book ratio, one-year price return and dividend yield. Please note that some ratios may be reported as of end of the previous quarter.

WHAT WE FOUND

Children’s entertainment company Spin Master Corp. has the highest free-cash-flow-to-capital ratio on our list, at 26 per cent. The company has a strong portfolio of brands ranging from good old Etch A Sketch, to the well-established Paw Patrol and DC Universe figurines.

Spin Master faced difficulties before the pandemic with its supply management in Asia, and COVID-19 exacerbated fears of a supply crunch. Fortunately, the company now seems to be moving in the right direction. Spin Master reported second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4 and raised its forecast for 2021 sales growth from the low teens to the mid-teens.

Automotive original equipment manufacturer Linamar Corp. has a risk score of 21.1, the lowest of our screen, which reflect a low valuation risk, also shown by its low price-to-book ratio of 1.1 and P/E of 13.4. The microchip shortage is having an impact on the auto sector and it is still uncertain when the shortage will end.

On the bright side, used car prices are up 22.6 per cent year to date according to the CarGurus price index, largely owing to strong demand. High used car prices stimulate new car sales and dealers’ inventories are low. This could lead to robust sales for Linamar as dealers need to replenish their inventories of new cars. Linamar is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 11.

Mattress retailer Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc. reported solid second-quarter earnings on Aug. 3, and appreciative investors bid up the share price by 15.5 per cent the next day. The company has benefited from a pandemic shift in consumer spending. This second quarter demonstrated the shift does not appear to be over. The company plans to invest in software to enhance inventory management and in the customer experience to maintain its growth.

Investors are advised to do further research before investing in any of the companies listed in the accompanying table.

Anthony Ménard is an investment analyst at Inovestor Asset Management. Inovestor for Advisors is a fundamental analysis research platform specializing in the economic value-added (EVA) approach.

Be smart with your money. Get the latest investing insights delivered right to your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor newsletter. Sign up today.

What are we looking for?

U.S. equities with improving valuations and fundamentals.

We look for a negative three-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and a positive three-month current operating value (COV) change to discover stocks with an attractive signal. A divergence in these metrics implies paying less now for more value than just three months ago.

The screen

We screened Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks focusing on the following criteria:

· Three-month price-to-earnings (P/E) change lower than 5 per cent. We want a company with downtrending valuation;

· Positive three-month current operating value (COV) growth. We want a company with improving fundamentals. The COV is based on discounted cash flow with no growth. The parameters are determined automatically by our platform. It is an approach to evaluate the minimum value of a business;

· Three-month sales growth higher than 4 per cent. We want a growing company;

· Economic performance index (EPI) higher than 1.25. This is the return on capital divided by the cost of capital. A value higher than one demonstrates a company’s ability to create value for its shareholders.

For informational purposes, we have also included the P/E ratio, three-year median P/E ratio, one-year price return, market capitalization and dividend yield. Please note that some ratios may be reported as of end of the previous quarter.

More about Inovestor

Inovestor for Advisors is a fundamental-analysis research platform specializing in the economic value-added (EVA) approach. With Inovestor, advisers can quickly identify attractive investment opportunities, outsource their stock picking by using model portfolios and easily communicate investment decisions with clients through client-friendly reports. In addition, Inovestor allows users to create personalized filters, build custom portfolios and carry out in-depth analysis on more than 13,000 companies (Canadian and U.S. stocks and American depositary receipts).

What we found

The leading streaming service, Netflix Inc. had the largest P/E decline in the past three months while registering 4.3 per cent growth in its COV. Many players have joined the streaming party over the past few years: Amazon Prime, Disney+, HBO and many others. But Netflix still has the largest content library and continue to fuels it with aggressive investments by acquiring or developing new series and movies.

The company spent US$11.8-billion on its content last year alone despite COVID-19 disruption in the film industry. Since 2018, Netflix’s gross margin has increased by 1 per cent each year, meaning a dollar spent on content has produced more and more additional revenue. As the saying goes: Content is king.

The multinational sporting goods company Nike Inc. had a strong year as consumers rushed to buy sports equipment during the pandemic. In its most recent quarter, the company again beat analyst estimates with diluted earnings of 93 U.S. cents a share versus 51 U.S. cents expected.

Over time, Nike has allied itself with many professional athletes who have contributed to the brand’s recognition. This recognition by consumers can be seen in the EPI of 2.6. Customers are potentially willing to pay more for Nike’s products than competing ones, which creates value for its shareholders. The company’s robust short-term results forced our algorithm to readjust its assumptions resulting in a 8.9-per-cent increase in the COV in just there months.

Etsy Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. have similar profiles. Etsy connects buyers and sellers, and offers mostly handmade and vintage items on its platform, while Amazon follows the equivalent process, but with a much wider variety of products. Amazon also has a huge division offering cloud computing services.

Both companies have benefited from the shift in consumer habits toward e-commerce. Is their growth borrowed or has the pandemic accelerated the transition to online shopping?

Close to a year and half after the start of the pandemic, Etsy’s three-month sales growth of 18.5 per cent and Amazon’s 8.5 per cent expansion show no signs of going backward. But both companies are also selling below their historical P/E ratios: 50.3 today for Etsy, versus 63.5 historically, and 69.4 for Amazon, versus 77.8 in the past. The lower valuations may indicate the market is not convinced growth can continue at the rates seen in recent years.

Investors are advised to do further research before investing in any of the companies listed in the accompanying table.

Anthony Ménard is an investment analyst at Inovestor Asset Management.

For more details about these stocks, subscribe to the Inovestor for Advisors platform for free: inovestor.com/en-CA/store/

Be smart with your money. Get the latest investing insights delivered right to your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor newsletter. Sign up today.