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These 13 TSX companies have predictable quarterly earnings

What are we looking for?

Canadian stocks with low dispersion in analyst estimates for the next two quarters. Dispersion is a metric that measures the standard deviation of earnings estimates.

In uncertain times, investors often gravitate toward companies known for their consistency: those that reliably deliver solid results quarter after quarter. These companies tend to inspire confidence among analysts, which translates into tighter ranges on their earnings estimates and lower volatility, making them especially attractive in turbulent markets.

In today’s market, influenced by new tariffs and likely inflationary pressures, stocks with predictable earnings offer a buffer against economic disruptions. They provide stability, helping investors weather potential growth slowdowns and policy uncertainties.

The screen

We screened S&P/TSX Composite stocks using the following criteria:

  • estimate dispersions below 4 per cent for the next quarter (CQCVE) and second next quarter (NQCVE);
  • five-year annualized EPS growth deviation (five-year EPS STD) lower than 7 per cent – indicating earnings stability over time;
  • three-year EBITDA STD lower than 5 per cent – reflecting operational predictability;
  • five-year EPS growth greater than 5 per cent – ensuring that stability is accompanied by some growth.

For informational purposes, we also added beta – a common measure of volatility – one-year price return and dividend yield.

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What we found

Companies with predictable earnings

TICKER NAME PRICE ($) CQCVE (%) NQCVE (%) 5Y EPS STD (%) BETA 3M PRICE CHG. (%) 1Y PRICE CHG. (%) DIV. YLD. (%)
L-T Loblaw Companies Ltd. 205.25 0.6 2.1 3.4 0.39 12.8 38.4 1.0
SLF-T Sun Life Financial Inc. 76.98 1.4 1.3 1.9 0.88 -8.1 8.9 4.4
DOL-T Dollarama Inc. 161.74 1.6 0.9 5.8 0.44 17.6 43.2 0.3
WN-T Weston Ltd. George 245.77 1.7 2.8 4.0 0.55 9.4 39.0 1.3
MRU-T Metro Inc. 98.84 1.7 0.4 2.4 0.31 8.8 39.8 1.5
CCL-B-T CCL Industries Inc. B 67.75 1.9 1.4 3.2 0.58 -6.2 -2.0 1.9
GIB-A-T CGI Inc. A 141.59 2.3 0.7 2.5 0.64 -17.4 -2.0 0.4
WCN-T Waste Connections Inc* 270.54 2.6 1.3 5.1 0.49 1.3 18.0 0.7
BCE-T BCE Inc. 29.61 2.8 2.8 4.3 0.70 -14.4 -34.0 13.5
MFC-T Manulife Financial Corp 38.95 2.9 1.2 4.2 1.12 -10.4 20.0 4.5
GWO-T Great-West Lifeco Inc. 51 3.0 1.9 4.2 0.81 8.5 26.0 4.8
FTS-T Fortis Inc. 64.64 3.4 2.5 3.0 0.36 4.4 24.5 3.8
STN-T Stantec Inc. 118.61 3.7 2.8 4.8 0.81 5.5 7.7 0.8

Loblaw Cos. Ltd. (L-T) is Canada’s largest food and pharmacy retailer, offering consumer staples across the country. The stock has a five-year EPS STD of just 3.4 per cent and tight analyst estimate dispersion of 0.6 per cent for the next quarter, offering remarkable earnings predictability. It has returned 38.4 per cent in the past year, underlining both investor confidence and operational resilience. Its low beta of 0.39, the third lowest of our list, adds to its defensive appeal.

Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF-T) is a prominent global financial services provider specializing in insurance, wealth management and asset management solutions. Known for its stability, the company boasts a five-year EPS standard deviation of 1.9 per cent, with earnings estimate dispersions of just 1.3 per cent and 1.4 per cent for the next and second next quarter, respectively. With a dividend yield of 4.4 per cent, Sun Life offers a robust blend of income and reliability, making it an attractive choice for income-focused investors in volatile markets.

Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) , Canada’s leading dollar-store chain provides value-oriented everyday essentials and seasonal products. While the company demonstrates the least consistent earnings on our list, with a five-year EPS volatility of 5.8 per cent, its earnings estimates for the next and second next quarter each rank third on our screen, at 1.6 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively. The stock has delivered a price return of over 43.2 per cent in the past year and 17.6 per cent in the past three months, outperforming all other stocks on the list in both periods. Dollarama offers a compelling mix of price momentum and defensive attributes.

Investors are advised to do further research before investing in any of the companies listed in the accompanying table.

For more details about these stocks, subscribe to the Inovestor for Advisors platform for free.

Anthony Ménard, CFA, is vice-president of data management at Inovestor.

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