Monthly Archives

September 2019

Number Cruncher Extra – Revisiting Canadian energy stocks in wake of Aramco attack

While looking over the results generated for the Globe and Mail number cruncher earlier this week, a great tip is to switch to Pfscan to get a comprehensive graph plotting all your results. This gives you an idea of how each company stands versus the rest of your findings.

For our screener focusing on Canadian Oil stocks, this is what we get:

We can easily see that the best wealth creating company is Parkland Fuel Corporation (PKI) since it is the highest company on the Y-axis. The Y-axis represents the Economic Performance Index which is the Return-on-Capital divided by Cost-of-Capital.

Also notice that it is on the right-hand side reflecting a discounted stock price.

In general, we want to avoid companies that are below the x-axis because that means that the company’s costs are too high to sustain. However, this depends on the sector. For the energy sector for example the costs of capital are huge and therefore the average Economic Performance Index would be lower than a more stable sector (such as Financials).

Lastly, companies that are in the bottom left are in the least attractive positioning, at the moment, since they’re returns are not covering their costs efficiently AND their stock is trading at a premium.

For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.

Revisiting Canadian energy stocks in wake of Aramco attack

West Texas Intermediate, the North American crude oil benchmark, fluctuated between US$57 and US$62 last week after the attack on Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest exporter of petroleum. The Saudi incident in and of itself will not revive the fortunes of Canada’s energy sector, but it did cause some stock prices of companies in the sector to surge, however briefly.

For the Globe and Mail this week, we look for Canadian companies involved in oil and gas production, extraction and distribution, with a focus on quality and sustainability, amid global geopolitical tensions.

We screen the domestic energy sector for companies by using the following criteria:

  • Market capitalization greater than $2-billion;
  • A positive change in the 12-month net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) – a measure of operating efficiency that excludes the cost and tax benefits of debt financing by simply focusing on the company’s core operations net of taxes;
  • A future-growth-value-to-market-value ratio (FGV/MV) between minus 50 per cent and 50 per cent, to exclude companies with exaggerated discounts or premiums. FGV/MV represents the proportion of the market value of the company that is made up of future growth expectations rather than the actual profit generated. The higher the percentage, the higher the baked-in premium for expected growth and the higher the risk;
  • Free-cash-flow-to-capital ratio. This metric gives us an idea of how efficiently the company converts its invested capital to free cash flow, which is the amount left after all capital expenditures have been accounted for. It is an important measure because it gives us the company’s financial capacity to pay dividends, reduce debt and pursue growth opportunities. We are always looking for a positive ratio and more than 5 per cent is excellent;
  • Economic performance index (EPI) greater than 0.5 and growth in the 12-month EPI, which is the ratio of return on capital to cost of capital, representing the wealth-creating ability of the company. For EPI, anything above one is favourable – the higher the figure the better.

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StockPointer® US and ADR Equities Model Portfolio Transactions – September 2019

StockPointer® US and ADR Equities Model Portfolio Transactions – September 2019

We have rebalanced the Nasdaq Inovestor Global Index based on our US and ADR Model Portfolios, which will be effective on September 20th after market close. Here are the details for the US Model Portfolio:

Ins:

1. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) – Market Trend. Increase in the Healthcare sector as seen in the Top 100 index, therefore, increasing our position in the portfolio.

2. Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (LW) – Intra-sectoral transaction.

3. Progressive Corp (Ohio) (PGR) – Intra-sectoral transaction.

Outs:

1. Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (SBH)– Market Trend. Decrease in the Consumer Discretionary sector as seen in the Top 100 index, therefore, decreasing our position in the portfolio.

2. Kroger Co. (KR) – Not in the top performers of its sector.

3. Blackstone Group Inc. (BX) – Not in the top performers of its sector.

Here are the details for the International Model Portfolio:

Ins:

1. Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (BIP) – Market Trend. Increase in the Utilities sector as seen in the Top 100 index, therefore, increasing our position in the portfolio.

Outs:

1. Unilever PLC (UL) – Market Trend. Decrease in the Consumer Staples sector as seen in the Top 100 index, therefore, decreasing our position in the portfolio.

Canadian market sees flood of new ETFs in August

In this research report created this month for The Globe And Mail, we look at Canadian ETFs: August’s launches.

The Canadian ETF industry reached a new record high of $186-billion in assets under management at the end of August. The momentum of ETF launches is not slowing down with 14 additions to the Canadian ETF product line-up, including a unique ETF by First Trust Canada and eight new ETFs by RBC iShares.

First Trust launched an ETF alternative to structured products, the First Trust Cboe Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF – August (AUGB.F). It seeks to shield investors from the first 10 per cent of losses, based on the price return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), while capping returns at pre-determined levels over the target outcome period. Specifically, the fund’s investment objective is to provide unitholders with returns (before fees, expenses and taxes) that match the price return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, up to a 13.18-per-cent cap (before fees, expenses and taxes), while providing a buffer against the first 10 per cent (before fees, expenses and taxes) of a decrease in the market price of the underlying ETF over a period of approximately one year – from the third Friday of August of each year to on or about the third Friday of August of the following year.

RBC iShares expanded its asset-allocation ETF offering with the introduction of three iShares ETFs, the iShares Core Income Balanced ETF Portfolio (XINC), the iShares Core Conservative Balanced ETF Portfolio (XCNS) and the iShares Core Equity ETF Portfolio (XEQT). Each of them has a management fee of 0.18 per cent. The new funds add to the iShares Core ETF Portfolio offering. One-ticket ETF portfolios have gained popularity among investors. These DIY funds provide simple, low-cost and diversified investment solutions that are slowly replacing the need for robo-advisers. All the major ETF providers offer one-ticket solutions: RBC iShares, BMO, Vanguard and Horizons.

RBC iShares also introduced five single factor ETFs earlier this week. Each ETF offers exposure to a distinct style of investing – Quality, Momentum, Value and Size. The iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor Index ETF (XQLT), the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor Index ETF (XMTM) and the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor index ETF (XVLU) track the MSCI USA Sector Neutral Quality Index, the MSCI USA Momentum Index and the MSCI USA Enhanced Value Index, respectively. The iShares S&P U.S. Small-Cap Index ETF (XSMC) and the iShares S&P U.S. Small-Cap Index ETF (CAD-Hedged) (XSMH) seeks to replicate, to the extent possible, the performance of the S&P SmallCap 600 Index and the S&P SmallCap 600 Index (CAD-Hedged). The addition of XSMC and XMSH further broadens RBC iShares’s comprehensive range of U.S. equity exposures, including total market, and large-, mid- and small-capitalization exposure.

Find the full report here

This article is written by Kimberly Yip Woon Sun,  ETF Analyst at Inovestor Inc. 

Number Cruncher Extra – Ten mining stocks to watch in Canada’s materials sector

Centerra Gold Inc. (CG) was briefly covered in the number cruncher written for the Globe and Mail earlier this week. Shareholders have enjoyed a steep rally in this stock’s price so far this year and from a fundamental stand point the company is pretty sustainable. By looking at its scorecard, we quickly notice the attractive positive outlook and the high SPscore.

Not only is the score above our 50% threshold, it also has increased by 7 % since last quarter which is a great sign. Both the Performance and Risk are in the green shaded area reflecting an undervalued stock (as can be seen on the Intrinsic Value versus Price graph) and an EVA uptrend.

Lastly, in terms of diversification, this stock will give our portfolio a Quality, Growth, and is a Low Risk stock compared to peers in the Canadian Materials sector.

For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.

Ten mining stocks to watch in Canada’s materials sector

When markets are unstable and volatility is on the rise, investors tend to investigate alternative defensive products in order to protect their wealth. The materials sector can be seen as defensive insofar as gold (its production being a key part of this sector) is negatively correlated to the market. Last month, because of the strong rally of gold and silver, materials was one of the best performing sectors in Canada. The sector rose 5.7 per cent in August compared with the S&P/TSX Composite Index, which gained 0.2 per cent. Year to date, the sector has advanced 22.9 per cent compared with 14.8 per cent for the S&P/TSX.

For the Globe and Mail this week, we took a deeper dive into this sector and analyzed some companies that have benefited from this trend.

We screened the Canadian materials sector by focusing on the following criteria:

  • Market capitalization greater than $1-billion;
  • A positive 12-month sales change – a positive figure shows us that there is growth and progress in the company’s operations;
  • A positive 12-month change in the economic value-added (EVA) metric – a positive figure shows us that the company’s profit is increasing at a faster and greater pace than the costs of capital. The EVA is the economic profit generated by the company and is calculated as the net operating profit after tax minus capital expenses;
  • A future-growth-value-to-market-value ratio (FGV/MV). This ratio represents the proportion of the market value of the company that is made up of future growth expectations rather than the actual profit generated. The higher the percentage, the higher the baked-in premium for expected growth and the higher the risk;
  • Free-cash-flow-to-capital ratio. This metric gives us an idea of how efficiently the company converts its invested capital to free cash flow, which is the amount left after all capital expenditures have been accounted for. It is an important measure because it gives us the company’s financial capacity to pay dividends, reduce debt and pursue growth opportunities. We are always looking for a positive ratio;
  • A low beta – a stock with a beta less than one is considered less volatile than the market.

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Portfolio Manager’s September comment For August Results

The Canadian market has been the best performer in August due in part to a strong rally in previous metals (such as gold and silver) and a vigorous GDP of 3.6 versus 3.0 expected. On the other hand, the US GDP was weaker than expected at 2.0 versus 2.3. Global markets were also down as a result from fears of an economic slowdown: Brexit, Hong Kong unrests, inverted interest curve and tariff issues.

The S&P/TSX Total Return Index rose by 0.2% in August, the S&P 500 decreased by -1.8% and the MSCI World by -2.1%. At August end, the YTD S&P/TSX Total Return Index was up 17.1% which was higher than the S&P500 (16.7%) and higher than the MSCI World of 13.5%.

The best TSX sector in August was Information Technology up 7.7%, mainly due to the performance of Shopify, followed by Materials up 5.7%, with gold up 16.7% and silver up 15.4%. On the contrary, the worst performing sector was Health Care (-13%) principally due to the performance of the Cannabis sector.

Looking more specifically at INOC, the best performers in August were Metro Inc. (+9.43%), a Canadian food retailer in Quebec and Ontario, followed by Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (+8.21%), a publicly traded limited partnership involved in the acquisition and management of infrastructure assets globally. Both stocks rallied based on their defensive attributes and as of a result of the inversion of the yield curve.

On the contrary, the weakest contributor to INOC was Parex (PXT), which was down 9.62%, on weak energy prices. The other negative contributors were Linamar (LNR) and CCL Industries (CCL.B) due to disappointing results.