Category

Number Cruncher Extra

Number Cruncher Extra – Eleven Canadian companies with profit growth

We touched upon Rogers Communication (RCI.B) briefly in the number cruncher written for the Globe and Mail yesterday which focused on Canadian companies with profit growth. What’s interesting with Rogers Communication is that even though profits and EVA have been on a nice incline, the stock price disagreed and has been slipping since March 2019. This occurrence pushed up the stock’s intrinsic value above its current price for the first time in 2 years.

In addition, we can look at the future-growth-value (FGV) graph for a double confirmation as to whether or not the stock is undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued.  The FGV metric represents the proportion of the market value of the company that is made up of future growth expectations rather than the actual profit generated. The higher the percentage, the higher the baked-in premium for expected growth. Take a look at the graph below, during Q1 2019 there was a small premium factored into the stock price. In Q2 that premium disappeared, and the stock was fairly priced. And now, in Q3 – the stock was valued at a discount to its actual potential.

For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.

Number Cruncher Extra – Ten utilities with the power to generate dividend growth

A review of the recently ended third quarter shows that the best performing sectors, in both Canadian and U.S. markets, were those that are particularly interest-rate sensitive, such as utilities (up 9 per cent and 6 per cent in the quarter, respectively) and real estate (up 7.4 per cent and 4.9 per cent). Today we focus on utilities. The sector has benefited from the recent decline in long-term interest rates and the market appetite for yielding assets, and it operates largely under the umbrella of long-term contracts. Hence, in our screen we look for defensive utility companies that have an attractive history of dividend growth.

For the Globe and Mail this week, we look for utility companies with the power to generate dividend growth.

We screened the North American utility stock universe by focusing on the following criteria:

  • Market capitalization greater than $5-billion;
  • A low beta – a stock with a beta less than one is considered less volatile than the market and ultimately giving companies a defensive edge;
  • Three-month growth in net operating profit after tax (NOPAT). A measure of operating efficiency that excludes the cost and tax benefits of debt financing by simply focusing on the company’s core operations net of taxes;
  • A current economic performance index (EPI) equal to or greater than one – this ratio is the return on capital to cost of capital. It gives shareholders an idea of how much return the company is generating on each dollar spent; an EPI of one would indicate that return of capital are just sufficient to cover the costs of capital.
  • Dividend yield greater than 2 per cent and dividend growth over one-, two- and four-year periods;
  • A positive 12-month change in the economic value-added (EVA) metric – a positive figure shows us that the company’s profit is increasing at a faster and greater pace than the costs of capital. The EVA is the economic profit generated by the company and is calculated as the NOPAT minus capital expenses.
For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.

Number Cruncher Extra – Revisiting Canadian energy stocks in wake of Aramco attack

While looking over the results generated for the Globe and Mail number cruncher earlier this week, a great tip is to switch to Pfscan to get a comprehensive graph plotting all your results. This gives you an idea of how each company stands versus the rest of your findings.

For our screener focusing on Canadian Oil stocks, this is what we get:

We can easily see that the best wealth creating company is Parkland Fuel Corporation (PKI) since it is the highest company on the Y-axis. The Y-axis represents the Economic Performance Index which is the Return-on-Capital divided by Cost-of-Capital.

Also notice that it is on the right-hand side reflecting a discounted stock price.

In general, we want to avoid companies that are below the x-axis because that means that the company’s costs are too high to sustain. However, this depends on the sector. For the energy sector for example the costs of capital are huge and therefore the average Economic Performance Index would be lower than a more stable sector (such as Financials).

Lastly, companies that are in the bottom left are in the least attractive positioning, at the moment, since they’re returns are not covering their costs efficiently AND their stock is trading at a premium.

For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.

Number Cruncher Extra – Ten mining stocks to watch in Canada’s materials sector

Centerra Gold Inc. (CG) was briefly covered in the number cruncher written for the Globe and Mail earlier this week. Shareholders have enjoyed a steep rally in this stock’s price so far this year and from a fundamental stand point the company is pretty sustainable. By looking at its scorecard, we quickly notice the attractive positive outlook and the high SPscore.

Not only is the score above our 50% threshold, it also has increased by 7 % since last quarter which is a great sign. Both the Performance and Risk are in the green shaded area reflecting an undervalued stock (as can be seen on the Intrinsic Value versus Price graph) and an EVA uptrend.

Lastly, in terms of diversification, this stock will give our portfolio a Quality, Growth, and is a Low Risk stock compared to peers in the Canadian Materials sector.

For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.

Number Cruncher Extra – Eight wealth-creating stocks in the U.S. real estate sector

In the midst of trade tensions and geopolitical disputes, it is the cyclical sectors – communications services and energy are prime examples – that tend to suffer most. As investors, sector allocation is crucial to the wealth our portfolio creates and thus we are curious about the sectors that hold up the best during a market shakeout. Interestingly, the best performing S&P 500 sector in the current quarter as of Aug. 23, at 5.6 per cent, is a cyclical one – real estate – followed by information technology. For the Globe and Mail this week, we focused on the U.S. real estate sector, which is largely unaffected by tariff disputes and indeed benefiting from the current conditions of low unemployment and interest rates.

This strategy uses the Inovestor for Advisors platform to screen the S&P 500 real estate sector using the following criteria:

  • A market capitalization of US$10-billion or more;
  • A positive free-cash-flow-to-capital ratio. This ratio gives a sense of how well the company uses the invested capital to generate free cash flows, which could be used to do such things as stimulate growth, distribute or increase dividends, or reduce debt;
  • A positive 12-month change in the economic value-added (EVA) metric – a positive figure shows us that the company’s profit is increasing at a faster and greater pace than the costs of capital. The EVA is the economic profit generated by the company and is calculated as the net operating profit after tax minus capital expenses;
  • Economic performance index (EPI) greater than or equal to one. This is a key criterion as it represents the ratio of return on capital to cost of capital. An EPI greater than one indicates that the company is generating wealth for shareholders – for every dollar invested into the company, more than one dollar is generated in returns;
For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.

Number Cruncher Extra – Eighteen low volatility S&P 500 stocks capable of withstanding market shocks

The unresolved and further complication of the Sino-U.S. trade dispute hit the markets once again last week, which I believe will cause higher volatility in the markets in the short run. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that, for now, no business will be made with Chinese telecom giant, Huawei, and that he is not ready to finalize a trade deal with China. This follows China’s decision to stop purchasing American agricultural products. Therefore, for the Globe and Mail this week, we screened the U.S. market to identify companies with low volatility and sustainable operations that can withstand further potential market turmoil.

This strategy screens the S&P 500 using the following criteria:

  • A market capitalization of US$10-billion or more;
  • A beta of one or less. A stock with a beta less than one is considered less volatile than the market;
  • A five-year average return on capital (ROC) greater than or equal to 10 per cent, reported as of last quarter’s end, and a positive change in the 12-month return on capital figure;
  • A minimum free-cash-flow-to-capital ratio of 5 per cent. This ratio gives a sense of how well the company uses the invested capital to generate free cash flows, which could be used to do such things as stimulate growth, distribute or increase dividends, or reduce debt;
  • A positive 12-month change in the economic value-added (EVA) metric – a positive figure shows us that the company’s profit is increasing at a faster and greater pace than the costs of capital. The EVA is the economic profit generated by the company and is calculated as the net operating profit after tax minus capital expenses;
  • A cost of capital less than 10 per cent, reported as of last quarter’s end.
For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.

Number Cruncher Extra – Seeking wealth creators among U.S. consumer discretionary stocks

In this week’s filter created for The Globe and Mail, we screened for wealth creators in the US consumer discretionary sector. We are looking for improving performance and comparing it to the premium or discount the market has attributed to those companies. We screened the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary stock universe by focusing on the following criteria:

  • Market capitalization above US$10-billion;
  • A current economic performance index (EPI) equal to or greater than one – this ratio is the return on capital to cost of capital. It gives shareholders an idea of how much return the company is generating on each dollar spent;
  • A positive 12-month EPI change – this measures the growth in return on capital versus cost of capital over the past 12 months;
  • A future-growth-value-to-market-value ratio (FGV/MV) between 50 per cent and minus 50 per cent. We chose this range to eliminate stocks that trade at an exaggerated premium or discount as that would increase the risk. This ratio represents the proportion of the market value of the company that is made up of future growth expectations rather than the actual profit generated. The higher the percentage, the higher the baked-in premium for expected growth and the higher the risk.
For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.
Click Here

Number Cruncher Extra – These 17 Canadian-listed small-cap stocks show solid fundamentals

In this week’s filter created for The Globe and Mail, we screened for Canadian-listed small-cap stocks showing solid fundamentals.

Today we highlight Canadian small-cap growth companies that have sound fundamentals.

We screened the Canadian stock universe by focusing on the following criteria:

  • Market capitalization between $200-million and $1-billion;
  • A current economic performance index (EPI) greater than one – this ratio is the return on capital to cost of capital. It gives shareholders an idea of how much return the company is generating on each dollar spent;
  • Positive 12-month sales growth;
  • A PEG, or price-earnings to growth, ratio between zero and two. This ratio compares the current price-to-earnings ratio with the average five-year earnings per share growth. For a stock to be fairly valued, the PEG ratio is one. For the stock to be undervalued, the PEG ratio would be lower than one, showing that the stock price does not fully reflect the earnings growth capability of the company.

Our Findings:

Magellan Aerospace Corp., an aerospace systems and components manufacturer based in Mississauga, is the largest company on our list by market cap. The PEG ratio is 0.8, which suggests that the earnings growth was stronger than what is reflected by the stock price – in other words, an attractive valuation. On the other hand, the company’s operations are efficient, as indicated by the EPI, which shows return on capital at 1.5 times the cost of capital.

TerraVest Industries Inc., an Alberta-based manufacturer whose products include fuel-containment vessels and wellhead processing equipment for the oil and gas industry, is one of the smallest companies on our list by market cap. It has a PEG ratio is 0.6, putting the stock at an attractive price point. In addition, the sales grew strongly, at 34.6 per cent, over the past 12 months.

This article is written by Noor Hussain, Analyst at Inovestor Inc. 

Investors are advised to do further research before investing in any of the companies that are listed below.

For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.

Number Cruncher Extra – Thirteen defensive U.S. health care and consumer staples stocks

In this week’s filter created for The Globe and Mail, we screened for Thirteen defensive U.S. health care and consumer staples stocks.

Looking back at May, it was the worst month so far in 2019 for the markets. The U.S.-China trade war spiralled deeper early in the month, with U.S. President Donald Trump raising tariffs on US$200-billion worth of Chinese products and China retaliating by setting tariffs on US$60-billion of American goods. Last week, the markets tumbled as the geopolitical mess worsened due to escalating trade tensions. In addition, last Thursday Mr. Trump threatened Mexico with a new wave of tariffs, which will begin on June 10. During this period of extended uncertainty, non-cyclical sectors hold up better due to their defensive characteristics. Today, we will screen U.S. health care and consumer staples stocks to identify some companies with solid operations and revenues that may be able to withstand this trade-war storm. We screened the U.S. stock universe by focusing on the following criteria:

  • Market capitalization greater than US$10-billion;
  • A positive 12-month change in the economic value-added (EVA) metric – a positive figure shows us that the company’s profits are increasing at a faster and greater pace than the costs of capital. The EVA is the economic profit generated by the company and is calculated as the net operating profit after tax minus capital expenses;
  • A positive 12-month change in the economic performance index (EPI) and a current EPI greater than one – this ratio is the return on capital to cost of capital;
  • A future-growth-value-to-market-value ratio (FGV/MV) of between 40 per cent and negative 70 per cent. We chose this range to eliminate stocks that trade at an exaggerated premium or discount as that would increase the risk. This ratio represents the proportion of the market value of the company that is made up of future growth expectations rather than the actual profit generated. The higher the percentage, the higher the baked-in premium for expected growth and the higher the risk.
  • Free-cash-flow-to-capital ratio. This metric gives us an idea of how efficiently the company converts its invested capital to free cash flow, which is the amount left after all capital expenditures have been accounted for. It is an important measure because it gives us the company’s financial capacity to pay dividends, reduce debt and pursue growth opportunities. We are always looking for a positive ratio and more than 5 per cent is excellent.
For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.

Number Cruncher Extra – Eleven U.S. energy stocks poised to withstand oil-price volatility

We touched briefly on Occidental Petroleum (OXY) in this week’s Globe and Mail article where we concluded it was a solid company in the US energy sector with healthy fundamentals. To carry out the analysis using the company’s scorecard, first thing we want to look at is the fundamental outlook and the SPscore.

SPscore: proprietary scoring system. We look for a score above 50%
Change in score since last quarter
Previous Spscore was 45%

For OXY we have a neutral outlook so neither a strong buy nor a strong sell. The score is interesting , it is above 50% which is good but what’s more attractive is that the score rose by 9% since last quarter (previous score = 45).

The stock is still slightly overvalued, given by the blue line being above the green line.

This is re-confirmed in the FGV/MV graph, where the blue bar appears above the green bar, indicating a premium. What we do notice from this graph, is that the premium decreased a lot recently as compared to previous years.

OXY’s operations are sustainable. Profits are rising steadily since 2016 and the company’s operations are healthy since the EVA is rising steadily as well. This means that the company’s profits are rising at a faster rate than the costs of capital which is ideal for a potential investment.

For subscribers to StockPointer, you can select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking.