{"id":44236,"date":"2022-06-07T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-07T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp2.inovestor.com\/2022\/06\/these-11-consumer-discretionary-stocks-should-withstand-cyclical-headwinds\/"},"modified":"2022-06-07T11:30:00","modified_gmt":"2022-06-07T11:30:00","slug":"these-11-consumer-discretionary-stocks-should-withstand-cyclical-headwinds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inovestor.com\/en-us\/2022\/06\/these-11-consumer-discretionary-stocks-should-withstand-cyclical-headwinds\/","title":{"rendered":"These 11 consumer discretionary stocks should withstand cyclical headwinds"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"ah-3 mt-48 mb-32 font-pratt-bold c-article-body__subheading-v2 c-article-body__subheading-v2--level3 c-article-body__subheading-v2--regular\"><b>What are we looking for?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\">Consumer discretionary companies whose trailing return on capital is below historical levels, suggesting that there is room to grow their profitability.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"ah-3 mt-48 mb-32 font-pratt-bold c-article-body__subheading-v2 c-article-body__subheading-v2--level3 c-article-body__subheading-v2--regular\"><b>The screen (add this screener <a href=\"https:\/\/account.inovestor.com\/InoAdvisor\/en-CA\/ScreenersDeepLinking?dataset=StockPointer&#038;screener=share%3A%7B%22name%22%3A%22Number%20Cruncher%202022-06-07%22%2C%22sortedBy%22%3A%22evamvecur%22%2C%22sortOrder%22%3A%22desc%22%2C%22criterias%22%3A%7B%22PRCcur%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22evamvecur%22%3A%7B%22%3E%22%3A1000%7D%2C%22sector%22%3A%7B%22in%22%3A%5B%222500%22%5D%7D%2C%22sale12CHQ%22%3A%7B%22%3E%22%3A0%7D%2C%22nopAT12CHQ%22%3A%7B%22%3E%22%3A3%7D%2C%22rocAVG5Y%22%3A%7B%22%3E%22%3A10%7D%2C%22FIC%22%3A%7B%22in%22%3A%5B%220%22%2C%229%22%5D%7D%2C%22evaROBC12%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22PrcCH12M%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22perCUR%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22divTAUX%22%3A%7B%7D%7D%7D\">here<\/a>)<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\">The consumer discretionary sector is cyclical, and a trend reversal is anticipated. Companies that have profited heavily from the pandemic environment, pushing their return on capital to unsustainable levels, can expect this key profitability metric to revert to historical levels in the next few quarters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\">That said, not all consumer discretionary companies will be equally affected by the trend. A solid contrarian strategy is to buy companies where the return on capital is historically low \u2013 and sell when it is high.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\">With that in mind, we screened North American stocks focusing on the following criteria:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"c-article-body__li ep-1 font-pratt\">Market capitalization higher than $1-billion in their respective currency;<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-article-body__li ep-1 font-pratt\">Five-year average annual return on capital higher than 10 per cent \u2013 we look for a company with proven long-term profitability;<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-article-body__li ep-1 font-pratt\">Trailing return on capital lower than the five-year return on capital (and which, according to our strategy, can reasonably be expected to revert to its historical level);<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-article-body__li ep-1 font-pratt\">Positive sales growth in the past three months \u2013 we look for a company with a positive industry trend (and this is how our list is ranked);<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-article-body__li ep-1 font-pratt\">Three-month growth in net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) higher than 3 per cent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\">For informational purposes, we have also included price-to-earnings, dividend yield and one-year price return. Please note that some ratios may be shown as of end of the previous quarter.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"ah-3 mt-48 mb-32 font-pratt-bold c-article-body__subheading-v2 c-article-body__subheading-v2--level3 c-article-body__subheading-v2--regular\"><b>More about Inovestor<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.inovestor.com\/en-CA\/how-it-works\/\">Inovestor for Advisors<\/a>\u00a0is a fundamental-analysis research platform specializing in the economic value-added (EVA) approach. With Inovestor, advisers can quickly identify attractive investment opportunities, outsource their stock picking by using model portfolios, and easily communicate investment decisions with clients through client-friendly reports.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"ah-3 mt-48 mb-32 font-pratt-bold c-article-body__subheading-v2 c-article-body__subheading-v2--level3 c-article-body__subheading-v2--regular\"><b>What we found<\/b><\/h3>\n<div class=\"rawHtml\">\n<div class=\"gi-module gi-embed gi-table\">\n<h3>Consumer discretionary companies<\/h3>\n<table width=\"1165\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"66\">TICKER<\/td>\n<td width=\"273\">NAME<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">PRICE<\/td>\n<td width=\"131\">MKT VALUE\u00a0 ($ MIL.)<\/td>\n<td width=\"131\">3M SALES GRTH. (%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"139\">3M NOPAT GRTH. (%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"74\">5Y ROC (%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"57\">ROC (%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"32\">P\/E<\/td>\n<td width=\"116\">1Y PRICE RTN. (%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"86\">DIV. YLD. (%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ABG-N<\/td>\n<td>ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC.<\/td>\n<td>182.72<\/td>\n<td>4044<\/td>\n<td>17.5<\/td>\n<td>19.6<\/td>\n<td>11.5<\/td>\n<td>10.8<\/td>\n<td>5.7<\/td>\n<td>0.5<\/td>\n<td>0.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>HLT-N<\/td>\n<td>HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC<\/td>\n<td>142.17<\/td>\n<td>39665<\/td>\n<td>14.4<\/td>\n<td>17.5<\/td>\n<td>10.4<\/td>\n<td>10.2<\/td>\n<td>54.8<\/td>\n<td>13.8<\/td>\n<td>0.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>MAR-Q<\/td>\n<td>MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC. CLASS A<\/td>\n<td>174.65<\/td>\n<td>57163<\/td>\n<td>13.6<\/td>\n<td>12.9<\/td>\n<td>10.5<\/td>\n<td>10.4<\/td>\n<td>38.7<\/td>\n<td>22.6<\/td>\n<td>0.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>CASY-Q<\/td>\n<td>CASEY&#8217;S GENERAL STORES, INC.<\/td>\n<td>211.68<\/td>\n<td>7856<\/td>\n<td>10.2<\/td>\n<td>10.6<\/td>\n<td>11.4<\/td>\n<td>11.1<\/td>\n<td>24.6<\/td>\n<td>-1.7<\/td>\n<td>0.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>CHH-N<\/td>\n<td>CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL, INC.<\/td>\n<td>131.01<\/td>\n<td>7306<\/td>\n<td>7.0<\/td>\n<td>10.5<\/td>\n<td>20.6<\/td>\n<td>18.4<\/td>\n<td>22.0<\/td>\n<td>8.3<\/td>\n<td>0.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EA-Q<\/td>\n<td>ELECTRONIC ARTS INC.<\/td>\n<td>141.00<\/td>\n<td>39480<\/td>\n<td>6.8<\/td>\n<td>30.3<\/td>\n<td>15.5<\/td>\n<td>12.2<\/td>\n<td>51.1<\/td>\n<td>-3.2<\/td>\n<td>0.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>TOY-T<\/td>\n<td>SPIN MASTER CORP<\/td>\n<td>44.17<\/td>\n<td>4541<\/td>\n<td>5.4<\/td>\n<td>27.8<\/td>\n<td>16.7<\/td>\n<td>10.4<\/td>\n<td>15.1<\/td>\n<td>8.9<\/td>\n<td>0.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>IHRT-Q<\/td>\n<td>IHEARTMEDIA INC CLASS B<\/td>\n<td>11.53<\/td>\n<td>1640<\/td>\n<td>3.8<\/td>\n<td>22.7<\/td>\n<td>11.2<\/td>\n<td>6.9<\/td>\n<td>74.2<\/td>\n<td>-52.9<\/td>\n<td>0.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>CMCSA-Q<\/td>\n<td>COMCAST CORPORATION CLASS A<\/td>\n<td>42.93<\/td>\n<td>192383<\/td>\n<td>3.3<\/td>\n<td>4.1<\/td>\n<td>11.3<\/td>\n<td>6.5<\/td>\n<td>13.8<\/td>\n<td>-24.6<\/td>\n<td>2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>DOL-T<\/td>\n<td>DOLLARAMA INC.<\/td>\n<td>70.12<\/td>\n<td>20532<\/td>\n<td>2.9<\/td>\n<td>20.5<\/td>\n<td>30.0<\/td>\n<td>25.2<\/td>\n<td>32.2<\/td>\n<td>30.7<\/td>\n<td>0.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>MSM-N<\/td>\n<td>MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC. CLASS A<\/td>\n<td>84.52<\/td>\n<td>4719<\/td>\n<td>2.7<\/td>\n<td>13.3<\/td>\n<td>14.7<\/td>\n<td>14.4<\/td>\n<td>16.0<\/td>\n<td>-8.0<\/td>\n<td>3.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\"><b>Asbury Automotive Group Inc.,\u00a0<\/b>one of the largest U.S. automotive retail companies, has a three-month sales growth of 17.5 per cent and a P\/E of 5.7, the highest and lowest on our list, respectively. Auto dealerships benefited from rising used-car prices, sparked from high demand from consumers amid limited supply from auto manufacturers. But while overall performance was probably helped by the pandemic, volume growth was constrained by low supply. At the end of 2021, the company acquired Stevinson Automotive, a dealership group, and the NOPAT increased by a robust 19.6 per cent after the acquisition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\"><b>Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.<\/b>, a hotel and resorts company,<b>\u00a0<\/b>has the second highest P\/E at 54.8, which reflects the anticipation of a solid rebound in the company\u2019s profitability as health restrictions ease and normalcy returns. This rebound seems confirmed by the three-month sales growth at 14.4 per cent, the second highest of our list. The return on capital is close to the five-year trend, but the COVID years are included in that number and so we could expect the return on capital to increase beyond the five-year return on capital for that industry.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\"><b>Casey\u2019s General Stores Inc.<\/b>, a convenience-store manager in the U.S. Midwest, achieved respectable three-month sales growth of 10.2 per cent and NOPAT growth of 10.6 per cent. Fuel sales, which represent about a third of Casey\u2019s total revenue, fell dramatically during COVID. With gasoline prices now at historically high levels, the company could naturally generate healthy profits if it maintains a stable gross margin relative to its revenue for its service stations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\">Investors are advised to do further research before investing in any of the companies listed in the accompanying table.<\/p>\n<div id=\"js-ad-slimcut-wrapper\">\n<div id=\"js-ad-slimcut\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\"><i>For more details about these stocks, subscribe to the\u00a0<\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.inovestor.com\/en-CA\/store\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i>Inovestor for Advisors<\/i><\/a><i>\u00a0platform for free.<\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\"><i>Anthony M\u00e9nard, CFA, is vice-president of data management at Inovestor.<\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text ep-1 font-pratt\"><i>Be smart with your money. Get the latest investing insights delivered right to your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor newsletter.<\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/newsletters\/#newsletter-group-3\"><i>\u00a0Sign up today.<\/i><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What are we looking for? Consumer discretionary companies whose trailing return on capital is below historical levels, suggesting that there is room to grow their profitability. The screen (add this screener here) The consumer discretionary sector is cyclical, and a trend reversal is anticipated. Companies that have profited heavily from the pandemic environment, pushing their [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[626,627],"tags":[628],"class_list":["post-44236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-number-cruncher-en-us","category-screeners-en-us","tag-consumer-discretionary-en-us"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>These 11 consumer discretionary stocks should withstand cyclical headwinds - Inovestor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.inovestor.com\/en-us\/2022\/06\/these-11-consumer-discretionary-stocks-should-withstand-cyclical-headwinds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"These 11 consumer discretionary stocks should withstand cyclical headwinds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What are we looking for? 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Consumer discretionary companies whose trailing return on capital is below historical levels, suggesting that there is room to grow their profitability. The screen (add this screener here) The consumer discretionary sector is cyclical, and a trend reversal is anticipated. 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