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Canada

April 2019 Portfolio Manager Commentary

The S&P/TSX Total Return Index increased by 13.3% in the first quarter. This gives the Canadian market a very strong start in 2019 which has actually slightly outperformed the MSCI Global (10.4%) and is performing in line with the S&P 500 (13.7%).

The stock markets are currently on the rise due to positive economic expectations. Over the past couple of weeks, the depth and longevity of constructive global perspectives have increased in importance following the most recent economic comments and political statements made by major central banks including that of China, Europe, and the United States.

This staggering global economic bull cycle over a longer horizon has a principal effect on the anticipations of investors in the stock market and it has clearly overcome the contradictions related to the softening of the short-term growth. Even though economic growth and corporate profits growth are presently lower than they were a year ago, their persistence and resilience over the long run are the key factors affecting investors’ psychology.

Our Nasdaq Inovestor Canadian Equity Index (NQICA) rose by 0.6% in March, leading to a YTD positive return of 11.4%, slightly underperforming the market. Looking at contribution factors to the NQICA returns, the best performing stock up 11.16%, was Parkland Fuel Corporation (PKI). On the contrary, the worst performer was The North West Company (NWC), down 9.3% in March.

The most recent rebalancing required the sale of three titles, The North West Company, Parkland Fuel and CAE. They were replaced by Great-West Life Co, Norbord, and Open Text. North West Company saw its ROIC decrease because of an increase in assets without being offset by a corresponding increase in its NOPAT. The catalyst for the sale of Parkland Fuel was the rise in stock prices. The sale of CAE was due to the significant decline in economic value added (EVA) as determined by our quantitative model. Great-West Life Co experienced a substantial increase in NOPAT and that is why we decided to add it to the portfolio. Many cyclical commodity companies have had strong bullish profits for a while and our approach is to increase the sector weights in those cases. Norbord is a holding which entered the portfolio for this reason. Finally, the entry of Open Text is explained both by a high fundamental rating and by an attractive valuation.

StockPointer® Canadian Equities Model Portfolio Transactions – April 2019

We have rebalanced the Nasdaq Inovestor Canadian Index based on our Canadian Model Portfolio, which will be effective on April 18th after market close. Here are the details:

Ins:

  1. Great-west Lifeco inc. (GWO) – Market Trend. Increase in Financial sector as seen in the Top 100 index therefore increasing our position in the portfolio.
  2. Norbord Inc (OSB) – Market Trend. Increase in Materials sector as seen in the Top 100 index therefore increasing our position in the portfolio.
  3. Open Text Corporation (OTEX) –  Market Trend. Increase in Information Technology sector as seen in the Top 100 index therefore increasing our position in the portfolio.

Outs:

  1. THE NORTH WEST COMPANY INC (NWC) – Market Trend. Decrease in the Industrials sector as seen in the Top 100 index.
  2. Parkland Fuel Corporation (PKI) – Market Trend. Decrease in the Energy sector as seen in the Top 100 index.
  3. CAE Inc. (CAE) –  Market Trend. Decrease in the Industrials sector as seen in the Top 100 index.

You can also find the transactions on Inovestor For Advisors, in the Model Portfolios – StockPointer Canada section.

Please contact us for more information.

The Inovestor Team

Portfolio Manager Commentary – February 2019

The S&P/TSX Total Return Index increased by 3.1% in February, adding to the strong January returns (8.1%) and leading to a YTD return of 12.2%. This gives the Canadian market a very strong start so far in 2019 which has actually slightly outperformed the MSCI Global (11.2%) and the S&P 500 (11.8%). Most sectors of the Canadian market were positive contributors in February, with Information Technology being the strongest one at an 8.4% increase.

The Canadian central bank & the FED comments have remained highly constructive for the equity markets. Although some analysts were expecting a more hawkish tone for the future, central banks have not indicated such act. Furthermore, the overall earnings and guided earnings have been positive over this period.

In addition, commodity prices, including energy and metals, have been stable which is crucial for the Canadian market. Finally, Canadian banks’ results were in-line to slightly below expectations, except for BMO, that came higher than expected.

Our Nasdaq Inovestor Canadian Equity Index (NQICA) rose by 2.1% in February, leading to a YTD positive return of 10.7%, slightly underperforming the market.  Looking at contribution factors to the NQICA returns, the best performing stock up 14.6%, was Constellation Software (CSU), that outperformed earnings expectations. On the contrary, the worst performer was CCL industries (CCL.B) which was down 3% in February as a result of weaker than expected results.

StockPointer® Canadian Equities Model Portfolio Transactions – January 2019

We have rebalanced the Nasdaq Inovestor Canadian Index based on our Canadian Model Portfolio, which will be effective on January 18th after market close. Here are the details:

Ins:

  1. THE NORTH WEST COMPANY INC (NWC) – Market Trend. Increase in Consumer Staple sector as seen in the Top 100 index therefore increasing our position in the portfolio.
  2. PAREX RESOURCES INC (PXT) – Market Trend. Increase in Energy sector as seen in the Top 100 index therefore increasing our position in the portfolio.

Outs:

  1. NFI GROUP Inc. (NFI) – Market Trend. Decrease in the Industrials sector as seen in the Top 100 index.
  2. WEST FRASER TIMBER CO. Ltd. (WFT) – Market Trend. Decrease in the Materials sector as seen in the Top 100 index.

You can also find the transactions on Inovestor For Advisors, in the Model Portfolios – StockPointer Canada section.

Please contact us for more information.

The Inovestor Team

StockPointer® Canadian Equities Model Portfolio Transactions – October 2018

We have rebalanced the Nasdaq Inovestor Canadian Index based on our Canadian Model Portfolios, which will be effective on October 19th after market close. Here are the details:

 

Ins:

  1. Parkland Fuel Corporation (PKI) – Market Trend. Increase in Energy sector as seen in the Top 100 index therefore increasing our position in the portfolio.
  2. West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFT) – Intra Sectorial transaction. WFT replaced OSB, whose score fell below minimum.

 

Outs:

  1. Power Financial Corporation (PWF) – Market Trend. Decrease in the Financial sector as seen in the Top 100 index.
  2. Norbord Inc (OSB) – SP Score. OSB score fell below minimum.

 

You can also find the transactions on Inovestor For Advisors, in the Model Portfolios – StockPointer Canada section.

Please contact us for more information.

 

The Inovestor Team

 

It is recommended that you do your own analysis prior to investing in any stock that we suggest. The information contained in this message is provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities.

Canadian Model Portfolio Transactions – July 2018

Sells: 

– Sun Life (SLF)  – SPscore. We sold SLF:CN because on a relative basis IAG:CN is a better stock to own in the portfolio.

– Enghouse Systems (ENGH)  – Market Trend. Reduction in the info tech sector. We had to remove a position in the portfolio. 

Buys:

Industrielle Alliance (IAG)  – SPScore. We purchased IAG:CN to replace SLF:CN in the financials sector.

TFI International (TFII) – Market Trend. Increase of the industrials sector. We had to add a position in the portfolio.