Monthly Archives

February 2019

Number Cruncher Extra – Strategy focuses on quality, profitability in the oil patch

As mentioned, in the Globe and mail article – Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) seems to reflect improving and promising performance. However, it is important to note that the EVA is still negative, meaning CNQ is still not adding value to its shareholders and this is due to the company’s high cost for raising capital. Although that difference is decreasing (due to a greater increase in profits than an increase in capital costs), it is not yet eliminated, hence why CNQ is still risky (given by the 51% risk score seen on the Scorecard) and signals an overall neutral outlook.

Fundamental outlook is neutral even though performance score is high because the risk score is also high
Risk score is 51%

On the other hand, for a more sustainable investment pick – lets look at Parex Resources (PXT). Apart from the reasons mentioned on the Globe and Mail article, PXT has an attractive scorecard. First, the positive outlook signal! This signal is due to the high score of 65% made up from a high-performance score and a low risk score. The stock rose by 7.24% as seen in the screener however it is still undervalued (this is given by the FGV and the P/IV graphs)

Intrinsic Value crosses the price line indicating an undervalued stock
The FGV is negative indicating a discounted stock valuation.
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Strategy focuses on quality, profitability in the oil patch

In this week’s filter created for The Globe and Mail, we screened for  Canadian energy stocks with improving fundamentals.

With oil prices on the rise in 2019, and energy stocks making up a notable proportion of the Canadian market, a large part of the gains on the S&P/TSX Composite Index so far are thanks to the energy sector. Today we look for improving company fundamentals to see whether the recent price bump for many of these stocks is justified by their operations. We screened the S&P/TSX energy sector for quality companies by using the following criteria:

  •  Market capitalization greater than $1-billion;
  •  Positive 12-month change in the economic value-added (EVA) metric – a positive figure shows us that the company’s profit is increasing at a greater pace than the cost of capital. The EVA is the economic profit generated by the company and is calculated as the net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) minus capital expenses;
  •  A positive change in the 12-month NOPAT – a measure of operating efficiency that excludes the cost and tax benefits of debt financing by simply focusing on the company’s core operations net of taxes;
  •  Future growth value/market value (FGV/MV) between minus 50 per cent and 50 per cent, to exclude companies with exaggerated discounts or premiums. FGV/MV represents the proportion of the market value of the company that is made up of future growth expectations rather than the actual profit generated. The higher the percentage, the higher the baked-in premium for expected growth and the higher the risk.
  •  Free-cash-flow-to-capital ratio. This ratio gives us an idea of how efficiently the company converts its invested capital to free cash flow, which is the amount left after all capital expenditures have been accounted for. It is an important measure because it gives us the company’s financial capacity to pay dividends, reduce debt and pursue growth opportunities. We are always looking for a positive ratio and more than 5 per cent is excellent.

Read more in this article written by Noor Hussain, Analyst & Account Executive at Inovestor Inc.

Number Cruncher Extra – These 15 U.S. stocks are creating shareholder wealth – and here’s how we found them

In this week’s filter created for The Globe and Mail, we screened for wealth creating US stocks by using the following criteria:

We screened the S&P 500 by focusing on the following criteria:

  • Market capitalization of more than US$10-billion;
  • Positive 12-month change in the economic value-added (EVA) metric – a positive figure shows us that the company’s profit is increasing at a greater pace than the cost of capital. The EVA is the economic profit generated by the company and is calculated as the net operating profit after tax minus capital expenses;
  • Economic performance index (EPI) of more than one and a positive EPI 12-month change. This is a key criterion as it represents the ratio of return on capital to cost of capital. An EPI of more than one indicates that the company is generating wealth for shareholders – for every dollar invested into the company, more than one dollar is generated in returns;
  • Free-cash-flow-to-capital ratio greater than 5 per cent. This ratio gives us an idea of how efficiently the company converts its invested capital to free cash flow, which is the amount left after all capital expenditures have been accounted for. It is an important measure because it gives us the company’s financial capacity to pay dividends, reduce debt and pursue growth opportunities. We are always looking for a positive ratio and more than 5 per cent is excellent.
  • Future-growth-value-to-market-value (FGV/MV) between 40 per cent and minus 70 per cent. This ratio represents the proportion of the market value of the company that is made up of future growth expectations rather than the actual profit generated. The higher the percentage, the higher the baked-in premium for expected growth and the higher the risk;
For subscribers to StockPointer, you can  select the link below and adjust the screener to your liking

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Portfolio Manager Commentary – February 2019

Horizons Inovestor Canadian Equity ETF (INOC)

The S&P/TSX Total Return Index ended the month of January up 8.1% offsetting in one month most of last year decline of 8.9%, making it one of the best month in the last 20 years. This upturn has been driven by several catalysts including a softening in the tone of last minutes of the FED, relatively strong results from earnings releases of large North American corporations, and the end of the US government shutdown. Meanwhile, prices of most key commodities including crude oil and gold were stronger in the month. Our Nasdaq Inovestor Canadian Equity Index (NQICA) rose 8.1% for the same period, 60bps below the benchmark. Our sector allocation removed 110bps as our decision to underweight Energy and underweight Healthcare proved to be unfruitful in January. However, our stock selection contributed a positive 50bps as a several of our stocks outperformed.

INOC’s constituents were changed on January 18th

Ins:

  1. THE NORTH WEST COMPANY INC (NWC)
  2. PAREX RESOURCES INC (PXT)

 

Outs:

  1. NFI GROUP Inc. (NFI)
  2. WEST FRASER TIMBER CO. Ltd. (WFT)

Best,

The Inovestor Asset Management Team

Canadian ETFs: January’s launches and terminations

 In this research report created this week for The Globe And Mail, we look at Canadian ETF’s: January’s launches and terminations

Three new ETF providers entered the industry in January. CIBC Asset Management introduced a suite of two actively-managed fixed income ETFs and two multifactor equity ETFs, which seek to replicate CIBC’s in-house indices. The indices consider the following factors in selecting equity securities: low volatility (low sensitivity to market fluctuations), quality (high profitability and low financial leverage), value (low price to earnings and price to book), and high price momentum characteristics.

SmartBe Wealth Inc. launched the SmartBe Global Value Momentum Trend Index ETF (SBEA) listed on NEO exchange. The ETF tracks the Alpha Architect Value Momentum Trend for Canada Index, which is based on three factors: value, momentum and trend-following. The index is designed by Alpha Architect LLC, a research-intensive asset management firm that delivers concentrated factor exposure.

National Bank Investments Inc. joined the herd of ETF sponsors with the launch of four ETFs. Its initial suite includes the NBI Active Canadian Preferred Shares ETF (NPRF), the NBI Canadian Family Business ETF (NFAM), the NBI Global Real Assets Income ETF (NREA) and the NBI Liquid Alternatives ETF (NALT). NALT’s investment objective is to provide a positive return while maintaining low correlation to, and lower volatility than, the return of the global equity markets. The ETF will seek to achieve this objective by investing primarily in long and short positions on financial derivatives that provide exposure to different major asset classes, such as government bonds, currencies, equities or commodities.

Another ETF Issuer has filed a preliminary prospectus to issue liquid alternatives ETFs. Accelerate Financial Technologies Inc., established by a team with a track record of successfully managing award-winning hedge funds, intends to launch a suite of exchange traded alternative funds.

Accelerate’s initial suite consists of the Accelerate Absolute Return Hedge Fund (HDGE), the Accelerate Enhanced Canadian Benchmark Alternative Fund (ATSX) and the Accelerate Private Equity Alpha Fund (ALFA). The ETFs’ fee structure will be similar to that of hedge funds. They have a 0% management fee and will only earn a performance fee if they outperform their high-water mark. For instance, HDGE will charge a performance incentive fee of 20% of the excess NAV in between quarters, ATSX’s performance incentive fee is 50% of the positive amount by which ATSX’s performance exceeds the performance of the S&P/TSX 60 TR Index for the quarter and ALFA will charge a performance incentive fee of 15% of the excess NAV in between quarters.

Read the full report here.

This article is written by Kimberly Yip Woon Sun, ETF Analyst for Inovestor Inc.

These 15 U.S. stocks are creating shareholder wealth – and here’s how we found them

In this week’s filter created for The Globe and Mail, we screened for wealth creating US stocks by using the following criteria:

We screened the S&P 500 by focusing on the following criteria:

  • Market capitalization of more than US$10-billion;
  • Positive 12-month change in the economic value-added (EVA) metric – a positive figure shows us that the company’s profit is increasing at a greater pace than the cost of capital. The EVA is the economic profit generated by the company and is calculated as the net operating profit after tax minus capital expenses;
  • Economic performance index (EPI) of more than one and a positive EPI 12-month change. This is a key criterion as it represents the ratio of return on capital to cost of capital. An EPI of more than one indicates that the company is generating wealth for shareholders – for every dollar invested into the company, more than one dollar is generated in returns;
  • Free-cash-flow-to-capital ratio greater than 5 per cent. This ratio gives us an idea of how efficiently the company converts its invested capital to free cash flow, which is the amount left after all capital expenditures have been accounted for. It is an important measure because it gives us the company’s financial capacity to pay dividends, reduce debt and pursue growth opportunities. We are always looking for a positive ratio and more than 5 per cent is excellent.
  • Future-growth-value-to-market-value (FGV/MV) between 40 per cent and minus 70 per cent. This ratio represents the proportion of the market value of the company that is made up of future growth expectations rather than the actual profit generated. The higher the percentage, the higher the baked-in premium for expected growth and the higher the risk;

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